Mark Megahan
Astronomers recently discovered an asteroid hurtling toward Earth. First spotted in December 2024, initial data gave it a 1 in 100 chance of hitting. Fresh observations produced worse numbers, 1 in 43. The experts decided that they need to divert some expensive time from the James Webb Telescope and get a good look at the rock, to better estimate its size.
Asteroid impact 2032
We really may need to brace for an asteroid impact in seven short years, NASA experts confirm. They’re still hoping it will go whizzing harmlessly past like most of the rest.
A collision isn’t anywhere near certain but the chance is high enough it can’t be ignored. The big question now is if it does hit, how hard would the punch be.
NASA, New York Post reports, “is training humanity’s most powerful telescope on a ‘city-killing‘ asteroid to determine whether or not we need to brace for deep impact.”
They named the incoming lump of “intergalactic gravel” 2024 YR4.
Soon after first detection, the projectile made the “top of NASA’s watch list when it comes to hazards from beyond.” Seven years to potential asteroid impact doesn’t leave a lot of time to deploy defensive measures.
“With this ‘time-critical‘ threat potentially on our doorstep, the space agency has enlisted the aid of the James Webb Space Telescope to study 2024 YR4 and gauge how much damage it would cause if it did strike our planet.”
Size matters
According to the European Space Agency, “it is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4.” That’s because “the hazard represented by a 40 m (130 ft) asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m (300 ft) asteroid.”
Initial estimate puts this one at roughly 180 feet across. Using that to calculate the impact force shows the slap would hurt.
“Based on these calculations, a strike by YR4 would cause roughly the same amount of damage as the Tunguska impact event, which laid waste to around 80 million trees in Siberia in 1908.” That shows the asteroid is a serious threat. Those figures are also the bottom range of the damage estimate.
That’s why we need Webb to get a better look at it. “Even with the current size estimates, experts predict that a strike by YR4 could explode with the force of 15 megatons of TNT — 100 more times powerful than the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.”
“However, as these estimates are based on terrestrial telescope data, they only see sunlight reflected off the asteroid’s surface, providing them a limited picture of the cosmic body.”
That, experts explain, means “the asteroid could be much larger.” ESA officials note “2024 YR4 could be 40 m across and very reflective, or 90 m across and not very reflective.” The first round “of James Webb observations will transpire in March when the asteroid is at its brightest.“
